Endorsed Flagship Pilot Studies

Africa: ELVIC – Climate Extremes in the Lake Victoria Basin

Contact person Nicole van Lipzig  nicole.vanlipzig@kuleuven.be

Extreme weather events, like heavy precipitation, heat waves, droughts and wind storms have a detrimental impact on East African societies. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) is especially vulnerable: It is estimated that each year 3,000-5,000 fishermen perish on the lake due to nightly storms (Red Cross,
2014). In addition, the LVB is a global hotspot of future population growth and urbanization. Urban dwellers in this region with low infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to climate extremes, such as urban flooding. As the frequency and intensity of climate extremes is projected to further increase substantially with climate change, so do the risks, with potentially major consequences for livelihoods of peoplein the LVB.

Future climate projections for the LVB are challenged by thecomplexity of the region. The mesoscale circulation induced by the lake and by the complex orography surrounding the basin, strongly modulate the climate change signal. Moreover, current state-of-the-art climate simulations over the region parameterise convection, while Convection Permitting Models (CPMs) have shown a strong added value in representing convection in other regions of the world. Altogether this urges for reducing model resolution to grid sizes of less than 5 km.

The computational cost of CPM integrations is currently so high that individual groups can only afford one realization of a possible future climate. Ensemble climate projections at the CPM scale are only possible in internationally coordinated programmes such as CORDEX. We therefore propose the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study (FPS) “ELVIC – climate Extremes in the Lake VICtoria basin” with the overall objective to provide robust climate information on extremes to the impact
community. Thereby, ELVIC answers the following questions:

  • Are moist convective systems in Equatorial Africa better
    represented by CPMs compared to models that rely on a
    parametrization of convection?
  • How can we best combine information of CMIP and
    CORDEX-Africa with CPM (climate change) integrations?
  • How will extreme weather events evolve in the future in
    the LVB?
  • How can improved probabilistic information on convective
    extremes be used by the impact community?

An assessment of the capability of CPMs to represent extremes is only possible when sufficient observational data are available. With the recently endorsed Hydroclimate project for Lake Victoria (HyVic) and the UK-led project HyCRISTAL (Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa), observations are planned in the region. This, together with the emergence of a group of scientists planning or already
performing CPM integrations in the region makes ELVIC extremely timely. This FPS is an effort to coordinate activities between these groups.

With this FPS we want to improve climate change adaptation
strategies in the LVB by providing useful climate information

Africa: Coupled regional modelling of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions over western-southern Africa under climate change

Contact person Francois Engelbrecht  FEngelbrecht@csir.co.az

The climate system of western-southern Africa is highly coupled and exhibits intricate interactions between the land, atmosphere and ocean. The dominating biome is the African savannahs, where complex tree-grass interactions are shaped by fire and land-use.

It has been postulated that under future climate change rising CO2 levels and increasing temperatures may favor trees over grasses in the savannah, leading to bush encroachment at the expense of biodiversity and grazing potential. However, given that that much of southern Africa is likely to become drier and significantly warmer under climate change (a conclusion of the Africa Chapter of AR5) it is plausible that mega-fire events may occur more frequently in savannahs, effectively favoring grasses over trees.

Read More

Register for the EGU-session “Regional climate modeling, including CORDEX” (session CL5.06 )

Dear Colleagues,

This is a final reminder that the abstract submission deadline for the upcoming EGU General Assembly is very close, on 10 January

2018 at 13:00 Central Europe Time (12:00 UTC).

We encourage you to submit your research for presentation in the session “Regional climate modeling, including CORDEX” (session CL5.06 ), so that this session can continue to be a strong contribution to the EGU climate program. The session description (with a link to the abstract submission page) is at

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/session/26436

We look forward to meeting you in Vienna.

Filippo Giorgi (along with Ray Arritt and Ivan Guettler, co-conveners)

Science Advisory Team

WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)

Terms of reference

Following the pioneering and successful work of the Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling (TFRCD) which mandate ended in 2011, the WCRP established a CORDEX Science Advisory Team in 2012. The CORDEX vision is to advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships. In order to achieve the CORDEX vision the Science Advisory Team (SAT) has the mandate to implement and oversee, in communication with the broader scientific community, the following tasks:

  • Advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships;
  • Maintain and update, as needed, a framework for evaluating regional climate downscaling techniques;
  • Establish and maintain protocols for CORDEX output and CORDEX archives;
  • Oversee and promote projects that advance regional downscaling;
  • Assist with coordination of WCRP research activities relevant to regional climate downscaling;
  • Promote links to other relevant programs such as WCRP core projects, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chagne (IPCC), the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS);
  • Provide advice to WCRP regarding research activities needed to support and improve regional climate science and prediction, modeling and observations.

The CORDEX-SAT is expected to report regularly at the JSC and the Working Group on Regional Climate (WGRC) meetings on the progress of its activities. Members are appointed for a 3-year term, with the possibility of 2-year extensions.

Individual SAT-members play a significant role in contributing to the SAT tasks with responsibilities including what is listed below: 

  • to contribute to the development of CORDEX strategy and goals;
  • to actively contribute to CORDEX guiding documents such as CORDEX CORE, Scientific Challenges;
  • to foster cooperation and communication on CORDEX and regional climate modeling matters where relevant;
  • to coordinate CORDEX activities (workshops, training activities, etc) and associated public outreach (news, web page, social media, etc);
  • to support resource mobilization with relevant stakeholders (development banks, funding agencies, donors, etc);
  • to interact with the various CORDEX regions and with the CORDEX Project Office;
  • to attend and contribute to SAT-meetings and other CORDEX meetings.

Members

Name  Affiliation
F. Giorgi
(co-chair)
Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Trieste, ITALY
 giorgi (at) ictp.it
W.  Gutowski
(co-chair)
Iowa State University
Dept. of Geological & Atmospheric Sciences
Ames, Iowa, USA
 gutowski(at)iastate.edu
A. Frigon OURANOS
Québec, CANADA
 frigon.anne(at)ouranos.ca
D. Jacob Climate Service Center
Hamburg, GERMANY
 daniela.jacob (at) hzg.de
H.S. Kang NIMR, KMA
Jeju, REPUBLIC OF KOREA
hyunskang (at) korea.kr
S.Jayanarayanan Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
Pune, INDIA
sanjay (at)tropmet.res.in
C. Lennard University of Cape Town
Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA
 lennard (at) csag.uct.ac.za
G. Nikulin Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Norrköping, SWEDEN
  grigory.nikulin (at) smhi.se
S. Solman University of Buenos Aires
Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA
 solman (at) cima.fcen.uba.ar
T. Stephenson Univesity of West Indies
Kingston, JAMAICA
  tannecia.stephenson02 (at) uwimona.edu.jm
F. Tangang The National University of Malaysia
Bangi, MALAYSIA
 ftangang (at) gmail.com
B. Timbal National Environment Agency
Singapore
  Bertrand_Timbal (at) nea.gov.sg

 

SAT meeting reports and other documents can be found here

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                [month] => 9
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                [post_date] => 2015-09-04 12:51:00
                [year] => 2015
                [month] => 9
                [post_type] => post
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                [post_name] => icrc-cordex-2016-call-for-abstracts-now-open
                [post_title] => ICRC-CORDEX 2016 Call for Abstracts now open!
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                [month] => 9
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        [38] => stdClass Object
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                [post_title] => Joint HyMex-Baltic Earth Workshop - 5th & 6th November
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                [post_date] => 2015-07-28 09:21:14
                [year] => 2015
                [month] => 7
                [post_type] => post
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        [39] => stdClass Object
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                [post_name] => 4th-wcrp-cordex-science-training-workshop-in-east-asia
                [post_title] => 4th WCRP CORDEX Science & Training Workshop in East Asia
                [post_author] => 1
                [post_date] => 2015-07-28 08:51:05
                [year] => 2015
                [month] => 7
                [post_type] => post
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        [40] => stdClass Object
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                [post_name] => icrc-cordex-2016-website-launched
                [post_title] => ICRC-CORDEX 2016 Website launched!
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                [post_date] => 2015-07-17 07:28:15
                [year] => 2015
                [month] => 7
                [post_type] => post
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        [41] => stdClass Object
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                [post_name] => special-session-ugm-meeting-puerto-vallarta-mexico-2nd-7th-november-2015
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                [post_date] => 2015-07-06 09:24:48
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                [month] => 7
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                [post_name] => 2-year-climate-researcher-position-at-rossby-centre
                [post_title] => 2 year Climate researcher position at Rossby Centre
                [post_author] => 1
                [post_date] => 2015-06-25 14:08:07
                [year] => 2015
                [month] => 6
                [post_type] => post
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                [post_name] => special-issue-of-asia-pacific-journal-of-atmospheric-sciences
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                [post_date] => 2015-06-25 14:03:14
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                [month] => 6
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        [44] => stdClass Object
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                [post_name] => kick-off-for-new-phase-of-cordex-africa-analysis-workshops
                [post_title] => Kick off for new phase of CORDEX-Africa Analysis Workshops
                [post_author] => 1
                [post_date] => 2015-06-22 15:43:44
                [year] => 2015
                [month] => 6
                [post_type] => post
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        [45] => stdClass Object
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                [post_name] => registration-for-empirical-statistical-downscaling-workshop-now-open
                [post_title] => Registration for Empirical Statistical Downscaling Workshop now open!
                [post_author] => 5
                [post_date] => 2015-03-20 13:59:54
                [year] => 2015
                [month] => 3
                [post_type] => post
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        [46] => stdClass Object
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                [post_title] => Regional climate models and CORDEX at the  UGM, 2 - 7 November 2014
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                [post_date] => 2014-06-26 14:16:26
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                [month] => 6
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                [post_title] => 4th Workshop of the Southeast Asia regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/CORDEX Southeast Asia Project
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                [post_date] => 2012-11-28 14:48:25
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                [month] => 11
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                [post_date] => 2012-11-28 12:52:35
                [year] => 2012
                [month] => 11
                [post_type] => post
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    )
    
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